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2008 Atlantic Hurricane News, Satellite Photos and Resources

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2008 Hurricane News

Note: The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season officially began June 1 and ends November 30.

Hurricane & storm tracking for the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans

April 2008 extended Atlantic hurricane forecast pdf: Colorado State University 

2008 Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, Ike, Josephine,
Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paloma, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred

Bertha, season's second tropical storm, forms in the eastern Atlantic

The second named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season formed off the coast of Africa and is moving toward the west-northwest at about 14 mph, but forecasters said it's too early to say if or where Bertha will hit land. The first named storm this year, Arthur, formed in the Atlantic the day before the season officially started June 1 and soaked the Yucatan Peninsula. AP/CNN_ 7/3/08

A new spin on hurricane forecasting

As coastal residents from the Caribbean to Canada brace for as many as 16 named storms, including two to five major hurricanes, predicted for the 2008 Atlantic season, the science of hurricane tracking is expected to improve this year. The human factor, however, has some ground to make up. Unmanned aircraft will provide new insight into how storms form and gain force by flying into the eye of a storm and gathering data on winds, temperatures, humidity and pressure. A global network of trackers and analysts will receive data from the drones on the energy exchange that occurs on the sea surface and determines a storm's intensity. Meteorologists have "over-forecast" the last two tropical storm seasons, and emergency response planners concede that the message that "it only takes one" is more difficult to get across when citizens steeled themselves in 2006 and 2007, only to be left with closets full of canned food, batteries and bottled water. This hurricane season comes after a rough period for the National Hurricane Center, where a fourth director in less than 18 months is trying to unify a staff described as divided and squabbling in a report commissioned by its parent agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Bill Read has been director since January. Los Angeles Times_ 6/1/08 (logon required)

May 2008

Arthur, the Atlantic season's 1st tropical storm, forms near Belize

Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of the 2008 Atlantic season, formed Saturday near the coast of Belize but was already over land and was expected to weaken later in the day, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. Arthur is expected to weaken to a tropical depression Saturday night but could regain tropical strength if it moves back over the warm Gulf waters, the hurricane center said. The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season begins Sunday. CNN_ 5/31/08

U.S. government sees active Atlantic hurricane season

The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season will be active with as many as nine hurricanes expected to form, U.S. government forecasters predicted on Thursday. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast 12 to 16 named storms this season, with six to nine developing into hurricanes. Two to five could be major ones of Category 3 or higher with winds above 110 miles per hour (177 km per hour), the agency said in its annual forecast. NOAA said there was a 60 to 70 percent probability of its prediction being accurate, the first time the agency has issued a probability with its forecast. It follows the last two years when NOAA called for active hurricane seasons only to see little or no impact on the United States. The U.S. Gulf Coast, Mexico, Caribbean and Central American countries were battered during 2005. A record four major hurricanes hit the United States, including Katrina, which devastated New Orleans, killing around 1,500 people on the U.S. Gulf Coast and causing $80 billion in damage. The 2004 season saw Florida struck by four powerful hurricanes. An average Atlantic hurricane season brings 11 tropical storms with six hurricanes, including two major hurricanes, NOAA said. Reuters_ 5/22/08

NOAA scientist's study says global warming not causing more hurricanes

Global warming isn't to blame for the recent jump in hurricanes in the Atlantic, concludes a study by a prominent federal scientist whose position has shifted on the subject. Not only that, warmer temperatures will actually reduce the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic and those making landfall, research meteorologist Tom Knutson reported in a study released Sunday. In the past, Knutson, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's fluid dynamics lab in Princeton, N.J., has raised concerns about the effects of climate change on storms. His new paper has the potential to heat up a simmering debate among meteorologists about current and future effects of global warming in the Atlantic. Kevin Trenberth, climate analysis chief at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., said it is not just the number of hurricanes "that matter, it is also the intensity, duration and size, and this study falls short on these issues." AP_ 5/18/08

Experts predict 'very active' 2008 Atlantic hurricane season

Wednesday, the forecasting team from Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project, led by William Gray and Phil Klotzbach, released its updated 2008 predictions — and the numbers are rising. The latest forecast calls for:

• 15 named storms.

• Eight hurricanes, of which four will be major hurricanes, clocking in at Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity.

"To put it in perspective, a typical season has 10 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes," said Phil Klotzbach. "So we're calling for about 160% of an average hurricane season this year." Klotzbach devised a new computer statistical model after his team overestimated the last two hurricane seasons — he said he lost sleep over the matter. USA Today_ 4/9/08

National Hurricane Center names Bill Read as new chief

Veteran forecaster Bill Read took over the center's top job Friday in the wake of a staff mutiny and other friction that sparked the ouster of his predecessor, who lasted only six months. Read, 58, had been serving as deputy director since August, when the turmoil at the center in West Miami-Dade County triggered the departure of then-director Bill Proenza. The dispute led to a congressional hearing and distracted forecasters during the hurricane season, something no one wants to see repeated. Read said he believed the center now can concentrate solely on delivering its forecasts, operating in close concert with emergency managers, the media and the public. Miami Herald/Houston Chronicle_ 1/25/08

Warmer ocean could reduce number of Atlantic hurricane landfalls: NOAA study

A warming global ocean — influencing the winds that shear off the tops of developing storms — could mean fewer Atlantic hurricanes striking the United States according to new findings by NOAA climate scientists. Furthermore, the relative warming role of the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceans is important for determining Atlantic hurricane activity. The article, to be published on January 23 in Geophysical Research Letters, uses observations to show that warming of global sea surface temperatures is associated with a secular, or sustained long-term increase, of vertical wind shear in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes. The increased vertical wind shear coincides with a downward trend in U.S. landfalling hurricanes. This study also suggests that where the global ocean warming occurs is important for determining the vertical wind shear in the Atlantic hurricane main development region — within the 10°-20° North latitude belt that stretches from west Africa to Central America. Whether future global warming increases Atlantic hurricane activity will probably depend on the relative role induced by sustained long-term warming over the tropical oceans. Science Daily_ 1/20/08

December, 2007

2008 seen as a rough Atlantic hurricane season

The 2008 hurricane season is likely to be less kind to the United States than the one that ended officially last week, according to forecasters at Colorado State University. For next season, which begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30, they foresee 13 named storms - those with winds of 39 m.p.h. or better - one fewer than this year. But the forecasters, Philip Klotzbach and William M. Gray, warn of a high likelihood that at least one major hurricane, with winds of 111 m.p.h. or more, will make U.S. landfall, which did not happen this year. The 2007 season left an early holiday present for U.S. taxpayers. Not a single major disaster was declared for a hurricane this year, according to Ashley Small, spokeswoman for the Federal Emergency Management Agency. By contrast, FEMA has committed $37.8 billion to cleaning up hurricane damage from the 2005 season - about $350 for every U.S. household. The total for 2006 was $2.6 billion. Not that the 2007 season was without drama. For the first time on record, two deadly Category 5 hurricanes, with winds over 160 m.p.h. - Dean and Felix - made landfall in the same season. Yet only one full-fledged hurricane, Humberto, reached the U.S. mainland, and it was a Category 1, with a peak wind of 90 m.p.h. Philadelphia Inquirer_ 12/8/07